Alternatives are ranked on emissions trajectory and evidence agreement only. This is not investment advice and says nothing about returns, valuation or suitability.
11 holdings (1.20% of the scheme) are behind their own promise or have witnesses that disagree, ranked by the carbon at stake in this book (weight × verified, else observed, tonnes). 0 carry a same-sector alternative; 8 have none in the assessed set, which is recorded, not padded.
Shell plcWitnesses differ weight 0.65% · 8.74 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 8.74 Mt at 5 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 4.45 Mt (verified there: 3.34 Mt). Company filed (ETS scope): 37.3 Mt (ESEF AR p.370), on a wider perimeter than the mapped holders, not compared. Observed above verified beyond band (±35%) in 2023 (+43%) and 2024 (+62%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'NL_383'], DE_31, DE_32, NL_205868, NL_383, NL_99, ['DE_32',
- Climate TRACE sources: '3143897'], ['18648367',
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 12384
- Company filing (2025): annual_financial_report_esef p.370 — “The percentage of Scope 1 GHG emissions from assets falling under regulated emission
trading schemes was 54% on an ESRS reporting boundary” sha256 3403693753ac
- Promise: Company filing p.98 — “reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute emissions from assets and activities
under our operational control (including divestments) by 50% by
2030 compared with the 2016 baseline, on a net basis”
AlternativeNo alternative sought: the observed perimeter is too thin to speak for the company.
ArcelorMittal S.A.Witnesses differ weight 0.06% · 27.98 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 28.0 Mt at 31 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 9.37 Mt (verified there: 4.76 Mt). Observed above verified beyond band (±50%) in 2023 (+109%), 2024 (+104%) and 2025 (+97%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: BE_105, BE_108, BE_109, BE_215060, DE_1228, DE_1364, DE_204192, DE_204194, DE_4112, DE_45, DE_60, ES_1039, ES_205568, ES_212, ES_988, FR_34, FR_485, FR_555, FR_628, FR_955, FR_956, PL_370, PL_375, PL_456, PL_458, PL_886, PL_887, PL_897, PL_898, PL_899, PL_900, ['BE_215060']
- Climate TRACE sources: ['1566440']
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 65248
AlternativeArcelorMittal S.A.: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
ENGIE SAWitnesses differ weight 0.09% · 12.30 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 12.3 Mt at 16 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 5.09 Mt (verified there: 10.4 Mt). Company filed (ETS scope): 16.9 Mt (ESEF AR p.75), on a wider perimeter than the mapped holders, not compared. Observed below verified beyond band (±25%) in 2023 (−47%), 2024 (−51%) and 2025 (−51%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'BE_69',, 'BE_70',, 'BE_74',, 'BE_750',, 'BE_76',, 'BE_84',, 'BE_85',, 'BE_92',, 'FR_1158',, 'FR_988',, 'NL_155'], BE_207682, BE_228066, BE_69, BE_70, BE_74, BE_750, BE_76, BE_84, BE_85, BE_92, FR_1149, FR_1158, FR_1159, FR_988, NL_154, NL_155, ['BE_228066',
- Climate TRACE sources: '25450675',, '25453511',, '25453887',, '25454652',, '25455881',, '447868',, '447871',, '447874',, '450355',, '451566',, '49700562',, '716695', and 2 more
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 220942
- Company filing (2025): annual_financial_report_esef p.75 — “Pourcentage d’émissions de GES scope 1 résultant des systèmes d’échange de quotas d’émission réglementés
|
42%
|
76%
|
73%” sha256 9908579238fe
- Promise: Company filing p.68 — “ENGIE se donne comme objectif global de réduire de 50% les émissions de méthane liées à ses infrastructures gaz (transport, distribution, terminaux méthaniers et stockage) consolidées dans le monde en”
AlternativeENGIE SA: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
Exxon Mobil CorporationWitnesses differ weight 0.19% · 4.70 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 4.70 Mt at 4 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 3.30 Mt (verified there: 2.11 Mt). Observed above verified beyond band (±46%) in 2023 (+50%), 2024 (+55%) and 2025 (+56%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: BE_175, BE_176, BE_177, NL_96, ['BE_176']
- Climate TRACE sources: ['3143743']
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 4503
- Promise: Company filing p.67 — “Our 2030 plans are expected to result in a 20%-30% reduction in corporate-wide greenhouse gas intensity, including reductions of
40%-50% in upstream intensity, 70%-80% in corporate-wide methane inte”
AlternativeNo alternative sought: the observed perimeter is too thin to speak for the company.
Eni S.p.A.Behind weight 0.06% · 10.13 Mt verified
Promised −13.9% a year (2018→2025, −65% Scope 1+2, filing p.160). Observed −2.3% a year 2021–2025, verified. Behind by 11.6 points (tolerance ±6.1 points).
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'IT_179',, 'IT_180',, 'IT_202272',, 'IT_355',, 'IT_512',, 'IT_517',, 'IT_541'], IT_124, IT_179, IT_180, IT_202272, IT_355, IT_512, IT_517, IT_541, IT_542, IT_620, IT_621, IT_627, IT_628, IT_630, ['IT_124',
- Climate TRACE sources: '25453044',, '3143965',, '3143967',, '40693183',, '447388',, '447433',, '449268',, '450374'], ['1753644',
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 61616
- Company filing (2025): annual_financial_report_esef p.355 — “Nell’esercizio 2025, le emissioni di anidride carbonica delle installazioni Eni sono risultate, complessivamente,
superiori rispetto ai permessi assegnati. A fronte di 16,4 milioni di tonnellate di a” sha256 c293f0ac1b34
- Promise: Company filing p.160 — “Inoltre, nel 2025, il target di raggiungimento del -65% rispetto al
2018 è stato superato con una riduzione di circa il -68%.”
AlternativeEni S.p.A.: behind by 11.6 points (verified). No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
BASF SEWitnesses differ weight 0.06% · 7.82 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 7.82 Mt at 21 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 2.31 Mt (verified there: 3.79 Mt). Company filed (ETS scope): 10.3 Mt (IR p.194), on a wider perimeter than the mapped holders, not compared. Observed below verified beyond band (±27%) in 2023 (−37%), 2024 (−40%) and 2025 (−39%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'DE_1117',, 'DE_1484',, 'DE_1692',, 'DE_1855',, 'DE_201938',, 'DE_201963',, 'DE_201964',, 'DE_201967',, 'DE_201968',, 'DE_201969',, 'DE_201997',, 'DE_201998',, 'DE_211198',, 'DE_2298',, 'DE_2299'], BE_215200, DE_1116, DE_1117, DE_1484, DE_1692, DE_1855, DE_201938, DE_201954, DE_201955, DE_201957, DE_201960, DE_201963, DE_201964, DE_201967, DE_201968, DE_201969, DE_201997, DE_201998, DE_211198, DE_2298, DE_2299, ['DE_1116',
- Climate TRACE sources: '25450277',, '450441'], ['18648353',
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 17436
- Company filing (2025): integrated_report p.194 — “Percentage of Scope 1 emissions from regulated
emission trading schemesf
67%
67%
66%
66%
+1 %
+1 %
–
–
–
–” sha256 6fa0a9f60a31
- Promise: Company filing p.189 — “Based on the 2018 base year, we want to achieve a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from
our production processes (Scope 1) and our energy purchases (Scope 2) by 2030.”
AlternativeBASF SE: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
Equinor ASAWitnesses differ weight 0.02% · 8.81 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 8.81 Mt at 21 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 0.30 Mt (verified there: 0.23 Mt). Observed above verified beyond band (±29%) in 2023 (+43%), 2024 (+262%) and 2025 (+30%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: NO_206862, NO_209936, NO_213640, NO_72, NO_75, NO_76, NO_77, NO_79, NO_80, NO_81, NO_82, NO_83, NO_84, NO_85, NO_86, NO_87, NO_88, NO_89, NO_91, NO_92, NO_93, ['NO_93']
- Climate TRACE sources: ['45257198']
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 220546
- Company filing (2024): annual_financial_report_esef p.118 — “I 2024 var 65% av CO2
utslippene (scope 1) fra egen virksomhet regulert
gjennom kvotehandel.” sha256 ba35ec722499
- Promise: Company filing p.108 — “Equinor en ambisjon om å redusere netto
klimagassutslipp (scope 1 og 2) med 50% innen 2030,
sammenlignet med 2015.”
AlternativeEquinor ASA: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
Endesa S.A.Witnesses differ weight 0.03% · 7.30 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 7.30 Mt at 18 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 2.08 Mt (verified there: 3.03 Mt). Observed below verified beyond band (±25%) in 2024 (−31%) and 2025 (−31%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'ES_223',, 'ES_225',, 'ES_226',, 'ES_227',, 'ES_719'], ES_1508, ES_222, ES_223, ES_224, ES_225, ES_226, ES_227, ES_228, ES_229, ES_431, ES_46, ES_47, ES_526, ES_719, ES_90008, ES_90009, ES_90047, ES_90048, ['ES_1508',
- Climate TRACE sources: '447988',, '449601',, '449604',, '449605',, '449608'], ['447987',
- Company filing (2024): annual_financial_report_esef p.259 — “Porcentaje de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto
Invernadero (GEI) de Alcance 1 procedentes
de Regímenes regulados de Comercio de
Derechos de Emisión (%)
99,0 % 99,0 % 99,0 % 0,00 % — — —” sha256 6a1829def1d6
AlternativeEndesa S.A.: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
Dow Inc.Witnesses differ weight 0.01% · 3.01 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 3.01 Mt at 1 installation. Observed at the matched installations: 1.72 Mt (verified there: 3.01 Mt). Observed below verified beyond band (±29%) in 2023 (−33%) and 2025 (−43%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: NL_407, ['NL_407']
- Climate TRACE sources: ['18648365']
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 34443
- Promise: Company filing p.8 — “By 2030: Dow will reduce its net annual carbon emissions by 5 million metric
tons compared with its 2020 baseline (~15% reduction).”
AlternativeNo alternative sought: the observed perimeter is too thin to speak for the company.
Neste OyjDisputed weight 0.01% · 2.24 Mt verified
Verified 2025: 2.24 Mt at 1 installation. Company filed (ETS scope): 2.51 Mt (ESEF AR p.36). Company filing below verified beyond band (±15%) in 2022 (−21%) and 2023 (−18%).
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: FI_533
- Company filing (2025): annual_financial_report_esef p.36 — “Percentage of Scope 1 GHG emissions from regulated
emission trading schemes (%) 94 94 90” sha256 aced53b810b3
- Promise: Company filing p.106 — “Scope 1 & 2: Reduce GHG emissions in Neste’s own
operations by 24% by 2030, 50% by 2035, and 80%
by 2040 compared to 2019 baseline”
AlternativeNeste Oyj: company filing disputed against verified. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
A2A S.p.A.AheadWitnesses differ weight 0.00% · 2.47 Mt verified
Promised −3.8% a year (2017→2035, −50% Scope 1+2, filing p.6). Observed −12.5% a year 2021–2025, verified. Ahead by 8.8 points (tolerance ±5.1 points).
Verified 2025: 2.47 Mt at 6 installations. Observed at the matched installations: 3.09 Mt (verified there: 2.24 Mt). Company filed (ETS scope): 3.35 Mt (AR p.177), on a wider perimeter than the mapped holders, not compared. Observed above verified beyond band (±25%) in 2023 (+50%), 2024 (+49%) and 2025 (+38%). The two independent sources differ; this is not a finding about the company.
Evidence
- EU ETS installations: 'IT_201',, 'IT_202',, 'IT_6',, 'IT_654'], IT_1068, IT_201, IT_202, IT_311, IT_6, IT_654, ['IT_1068',
- Climate TRACE sources: '447372',, '447449',, '448016',, '448035'], ['25453327',
- Climate TRACE fleet: C:\~\Blockfilm\.claude\worktrees\camd-calibration\ESGTools\fetchers\snapshots\climate_trace\2026-10-12-ship\trend_climate_trace.csv; company_id 222601
- Company filing (2025): annual_report p.177 — “Gross GHG emissions from emission trading schemes (ETS)
tCO2eq
3,354,430
3,008,751” sha256 35d8808bf5be
- Promise: Company filing p.6 — “50% reduction in direct and indirect emissions (Scope 1 and 2) by 2035 compared to 2017.”
AlternativeA2A S.p.A.: verified and observed differ beyond the band. No same-sector alternative in the assessed set passes the rule.
Alternatives are ranked on emissions trajectory and evidence agreement only. This is not investment advice and says nothing about returns, valuation or suitability.
2.1% of the scheme carries a Pace verdict resting on a licence-restricted promise; it is shown here as not assessed.
Perimeter: Agreement rests on EU ETS installations only, so every Agreement state here is EU-only observation. Of the holdings with any state, 22 (2.2% of the scheme) rest on EU-only observation and 0 (0.0%) on Climate TRACE power plants only.
Disputed means the sources disagree, never misreported. Witnesses differ means the two
independent sources disagree with each other and is not a finding about the company. Behind means slower than
the company's own promise and says nothing about 1.5°C. No temperature, no alignment verdict, no number out of
100. Rule: climate/DECISION-TRANSITION-STATES.md.